In a series of lightning-fast developments that have upended the Middle East’s longstanding power balances, Syria’s post-Assad interim government — led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — has lodged a formal complaint with the United Nations, accusing Israel of violating the 1974 disengagement agreement and multiple UN Security Council resolutions.
The unexpected collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the rapid territorial gains of hardline jihadists have transformed the strategic landscape, eroding the once-coherent “axis of resistance” and casting new shadows over Palestinian aspirations for statehood.
A Complaint and a Crisis
A letter, purportedly sent by Syria’s newly designated UN representative, Ambassador Kuzai Alak, to UN Secretary-General António Guterres on December 9, charges that Israel’s military operations, bombings, and territorial incursions into Syrian territory constitute grave violations of international law and existing peacekeeping frameworks.
Once anchored by the Assad government’s uneasy truce with Israel, the frontier has now become fluid and hotly contested. Observers say that HTS, while not yet firing on Israeli positions, is asserting its claims diplomatically—an unexpected move for a faction historically linked to extremist networks.
In the letter, the interim Syrian government condemns the “serious violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement” and demands Israel’s immediate withdrawal from newly seized Syrian lands. With this step, the HTS-led administration positions itself as a sovereign actor determined to uphold Syria’s territorial integrity and reassert its place on the international stage.
A Rapid and Unexpected Collapse
No major intelligence agency or policy think tank appears to have predicted Assad’s swift downfall. The regime, long presumed stable enough to withstand years of conflict, sanctions, and regional intrigue, reportedly disintegrated in days rather than weeks. The suddenness of this collapse has left diplomats and analysts scrambling for explanations.
According to Scott Ritter, a former United Nations weapons inspector and longtime observer of regional dynamics, the near-instantaneous collapse of the Assad regime was akin to “a house of cards suddenly giving way.”
“No one saw this coming—no intelligence service, no regional powerhouse, no serious policy strategist,” Ritter observes. “Syria—once hardened by foreign pressure and years of war—buckled without a last stand. The army didn’t rally, no Russian or Iranian forces rushed in, and no commanding officer stepped up to defend Damascus. HTS-aligned jihadists simply marched into Aleppo and then into the capital almost unopposed.”
The breakdown in Syrian military discipline was stark. Years of corruption, low morale, and neglect hollowed out the once-formidable forces that had earlier—with Russian and Iranian backing—retaken much of the country. According to Ritter, “Corruption and battlefield exhaustion created conditions where even the presence of radical jihadist factions could be preferable to a stagnant status quo. Commanders simply chose not to fight.”
End of the Axis of Resistance
For over a decade, Syria was a linchpin in the “axis of resistance,” linking Iran, Hezbollah, and Palestinian factions in a unified front that kept Israel off-balance. Now, the strategic architecture that funneled weapons and support from Tehran to Hezbollah’s Lebanese strongholds, and by extension bolstered Palestinian factions, is gone. Ritter warns that this severed link leaves Hezbollah isolated and uncertain, and the Palestinian cause precariously adrift.
“This is the ultimate nightmare scenario for Iran and Hezbollah,” he says. “The corridors that allowed Iranian material support to flow unimpeded into Lebanon have vanished. Israel, seizing the moment, pushes from the Golan Heights deeper into Syrian territory. The old deterrents are gone, and Hezbollah’s ‘red lines’ suddenly look like faint pencil marks on a shifting map.”
Israel agreed on Sunday to double its population on the occupied Golan Heights while saying threats from Syria remained despite the moderate tone of rebel leaders who ousted President Bashar al-Assad a week ago.
“Strengthening the Golan is strengthening the State of Israel, and it is especially important at this time. We will continue to hold onto it, cause it to blossom, and settle in it,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
Israel captured most of the strategic plateau from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War, annexing it in 1981.
A Blow to Palestinian Aspirations
The regional upheaval also delivers a body blow to hopes for Palestinian statehood. Ritter notes that before the Syrian collapse, some analysts believed Israeli political cohesion might fracture under external pressures and the complexities following the October 7, 2024 attack by Hamas. Any strategic vulnerability in Israel’s position, the reasoning went, might force it to reconsider its outright rejection of a two-state solution. Instead, with Syria gone, Israel has claimed a decisive strategic victory.
“Palestine needed a weakened Israel to gain any leverage,” Ritter explains. “Instead, this turn of events has fortified Netanyahu’s hand. He emerges as the savior of Israel rather than its embattled leader. Without the axis of resistance, there is no effective deterrent to Israel’s expansionist tendencies. The notion of a Palestinian state is now further from reality than ever.”
Analysts fear Israel may consolidate its control over the West Bank and even contemplate depopulating Gaza, fully aware that no powerful regional bloc remains to challenge such actions. The Palestinian question, already marginalized, risks being buried under the rubble of Syria’s disintegration and the world’s preoccupation with the ensuing chaos.
Uncertain Role of International Observers
The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), historically entrusted with monitoring the Israeli-Syrian frontier, faces unprecedented challenges. Its mission, much like that of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), was to maintain stability and ensure adherence to armistice lines. With territorial lines blurred and Israel reportedly ignoring long-established boundaries, UNDOF’s authority and ability to operate are severely tested.
So far, UN peacekeepers have issued no public statements acknowledging the transformations on the ground. Western diplomats, previously fixated on containing Iran and resolving civil war-era disputes, are now at a loss. Not even the return of the Trump administration in Washington has yielded a coherent response; the U.S., along with other global powers, appears caught flat-footed by the rapidly changing geopolitical equation.
A Region Teetering on the Brink
The consequences of Syria’s collapse do not end with Israel and Palestine. Without a central authority in Damascus, Turkey may consider annexing historically contested areas near its border. Kurdish factions, long repressed, may move toward independence. Alawite, Sunni, Shiite, and Christian communities face the possibility of being segregated into warring enclaves. “Think Libya, but worse,” says Ritter. “This could be the ultimate black hole of international relations—drawing in global powers, fueling extremist resurgence, and reshuffling the borders of multiple states.”
Countries that once offered rhetorical support for Palestinian rights now have their hands full managing refugee crises, avoiding spillover conflict, and preventing extremist infiltration. The Palestinian cause, lacking strategic patrons, risks fading from international agendas.
Wider Failures and Lost Opportunities
Ritter laments that the international community had opportunities to strengthen the Syrian state after 2018. Instead, crippling sanctions, half-hearted reconstruction efforts, and tolerance of corruption eroded Syria from within. Had there been more robust and inclusive political frameworks, a different outcome might have emerged—one that preserved a stable Middle East and safeguarded the possibility of a Palestinian homeland.
“Diplomacy was replaced by zero-sum thinking, and now we’re left with a zero-sum result,” Ritter concludes. “A stable Syria was a cornerstone that could have provided a platform for long-term solutions, including for the Palestinians. Now that cornerstone is gone, and the entire edifice is collapsing.”
Looking Ahead: A Grim Horizon
With the Assad regime’s fall, all actors—Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Palestinians—face new dilemmas. Israel appears to have gained a freer hand, but at the price of plunging the region into heightened uncertainty. Iran’s influence is curtailed, Hezbollah is exposed, and Palestinians stand alone, their long-sought statehood more elusive than ever.
International reaction has been slow. Talks at the UN remain inconclusive. World leaders, distracted by economic challenges and other flashpoints, have yet to formulate a coherent strategy to address the vacuum in Syria. As tumult spreads, the Middle East enters an era defined by chaos and shifting alliances, rather than hope and negotiated peace.
“It is an ultimate tragedy,” Ritter says. “So many sacrifices were made, and now those sacrifices seem in vain. Without Syria anchoring the axis of resistance, the Palestinian plight becomes a faint echo amid the roar of a collapsing order. The world will likely look away, leaving Palestinians—and all who sought a just resolution—to face their fate alone.”
