Two years into Israel’s war in Gaza, a growing number of voices — including military experts, analysts, and even retired Israeli officials — argue that the campaign is unwinnable. What began as a mission to dismantle Hamas has devolved into a political and military quagmire, drawing comparisons to some of history’s most notorious military failures.
“Israel is not going to win this war,” argued former U.N. weapons inspector Scott Ritter in a recent interview. “It’s like watching the Germans rush troops into the Barrikady factory at Stalingrad. The Soviets were dug in and repelled them again and again. Hamas isn’t going anywhere.”
An Intractable Battlefield
At the war’s outset, Israel estimated that Hamas and Islamic Jihad had between 30,000 and 40,000 active combatants. Nearly two years later, Israel claims to have killed 8,900 fighters. But those figures, Ritter contends, are misleading.
“Most of those casualties aren’t combatants,” he said. “They’re postmen, teachers, anyone on the Hamas payroll. The actual number of trigger-pullers killed is extraordinarily small. And Hamas has successfully recruited more fighters during the conflict, especially in the ceasefire period.”
Despite relentless bombardment, Israel’s attempts to destroy Gaza’s vast tunnel network — Hamas’s strategic backbone — have largely failed. Ritter estimated that more than 80% of the tunnels remain intact, allowing Palestinian fighters to stage ambushes and increase Israeli casualties.
“As Israeli morale erodes, mistakes will be made,” he added. “Hamas won’t get sloppy. Israel will.”
Political Collapse at Home
Inside Israel, public frustration is boiling over. Hundreds of thousands have joined street protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Retired generals and intelligence officers — once loyal defenders of the state — have signed letters declaring the war “stupid” and unwinnable.
“The political situation is unsustainable,” Ritter said. “Netanyahu and his right-wing allies are proposing the equivalent of a modern-day Warsaw Ghetto clearance. It’s genocidal. But even in Israel, support for this war is collapsing.”
A recent Haaretz front-page editorial praised Palestinians as “the greatest people in modern history when it comes to defending their homeland” — a striking acknowledgment of Palestinian resilience.
A Strategic Trap
Ritter believes Hamas leaders carefully planned the October 7 attack that triggered the war.
“This wasn’t a panicked assault. It was designed to lure Israel into Gaza and let Israel expose itself for what it truly is,” he said. “For decades, Israel cloaked itself in the veneer of civilization. Americans were told Israel was just the 51st state. But Hamas understood that only by letting Israel be Israel would the world see the genocidal reality.”
That strategy, Ritter argued, has worked. Global opinion has shifted sharply. “Israel’s legitimacy is gone,” he said. “It’s now seen as a murderous state that survives only by feeding off Palestinian land. It’s finished.”
Regional Escalation
Israel’s war has also triggered broader instability. Yemen’s Houthis — despite a devastating Israeli strike that killed the country’s prime minister and 11 ministers — have intensified attacks on Red Sea shipping and even launched missiles at Israel.
“These aren’t ragtag rebels anymore,” Ritter warned. “They’ve acquired advanced Iranian missile technology. Some missiles disperse multiple warheads, forcing Israel to fire up to a dozen interceptors at once. Economically, that’s a victory for the Houthis.”
Iran, meanwhile, has accelerated its missile program and prepared for a potential direct conflict. Ritter cautioned that another war with Iran would be catastrophic for Israel. “They didn’t get stronger after June 2025,” he said. “But Iran did.”
The Trump Factor
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, Ritter noted, has been unwavering in its support for Israel. Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner even floated the idea of bulldozing parts of Gaza and paying Palestinians to leave.
“If you grade Trump on campaign promises, he gets an A,” Ritter said. “He pledged total support for Israel and built a cabinet that required Israel-first loyalty. Every crime Israel commits in Gaza, the U.S. is culpable in. We planned it, funded it, facilitated it.”
But even Trump has acknowledged Israel’s grip on Washington is weakening. Support for Israel in the U.S. is dropping fast, with recent polls showing only 30% of Americans backing the war.
Netanyahu’s Desperation
For Netanyahu, survival depends on prolonging the war. “This government cannot exist in peacetime,” Ritter said. “If the war ends, Netanyahu will face trial for corruption, deception, mishandling October 7, and lying about hostages. He belongs in prison. So he needs perpetual war.”
Hamas, for its part, shows no sign of surrender. “They’ve dared Israel to dig them out,” Ritter said. “And no one can.”
Toward the Endgame
Ritter predicts the war will ultimately end in Israel’s strategic defeat — militarily, economically, and politically. “Israel is finished,” he said. “The world sees them for what they are. Investment will dry up. Society will fracture. The Zionist entity will collapse.”
While he acknowledged that the struggle could drag on, Ritter insisted history is on the Palestinians’ side. “The Palestinian people have struggled for generations,” he said. “We’re in the endgame. And it’s going to end poorly for Israel.”